Regional Economics: Theory and Practice
 

Mechanisms for the identification of business cycles of regional economic systems based on cross-correlation analysis

Vol. 15, Iss. 8, AUGUST 2017

Received: 13 April 2017

Received in revised form: 27 April 2017

Accepted: 15 May 2017

Available online: 15 August 2017

Subject Heading: ECONOMIC-MATHEMATICAL MODELING

JEL Classification: C22, С43, С53

Pages: 1540–1551

https://doi.org/10.24891/re.15.8.1540

El'shin L.A. University of Management TISBI, Kazan, Republic of Tatarstan, Russian Federation Leonid.Elshin@tatar.ru

Subject The article deals with the issues of regional business activity and search for mechanisms that promote objective perception and evaluation of this kind of activity.
Objectives The article aims to test the business model mechanisms of regional economic system and develop predictive assessments of the industrial development of the region and the national economy as a whole.
Methods The article uses the methods of cross-correlation analysis, statistical analysis, and some other special methods.
Results The article introduces methodological approaches to diagnosing the business activity of regional economic systems (the Republic of Tatarstan as a case study) and the development of projections of key macroeconomic parameters of the Republic of Tatarstan and the Russian Federation up to 2017.
Conclusions and Relevance For the time being, the factors that characterize the adjustments in the stock and financial markets have the greatest impact on the region's business activity. The results of the study reveal a positive trend in business development in the Republic of Tatarstan in 2016, which suggests that the economic growth should be revived in 2017. The results obtained can be useful for the public administration when developing short-term projections of the socio-economic development of the territories.

Keywords: business activity, forecasting, modeling, industrial development

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