Subject We elaborate and estimate the dynamics models of birth, death and migration rates for the regions of the Central Federal District of the Russian Federation over the period of 2005–2014. Objectives We aim to analyze the dynamics of demographic processes with the help of spatiotemporal modeling, reveal the regularities of the indicators and coefficients of growth (decline) rates in the Central Federal District regions, and study their cluster structure. The previously elaborated author methods of panel data analysis are used to conduct a data mining study with the results potentially useful for experts in statistics and demography. Methods We use the methods of approximation with the two-parameter models, correlation, factor, and cluster analyses in SPSS software package. Results We have calculated the parameters of three demographic coefficients for two-parameter models for all regions of the Central Federal District for the period of 2005–2014, explored the nature of performance factors, and tried to classify the regions by cluster. Conclusions The dynamics of demographic processes can be adequately described by two-parameter models. The article shows that generally, the demographic situation in the Central Federal District regions is improving sustainably. The dynamics of birth rate is positive (albeit lower than the national average one), the death rate one is negative (although exceeding the national average one). Migration processes in the subjects of the Central Federal District are intensive, but various-directional.
Keywords: regions, Central Federal District, birth rate, mortality rate, net migration rate, spatiotemporal process
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