Oreshnikov V.V.Institute of Socio-Economic Research, Ufa Science Centre of RAS, Ufa, Republic of Bashkortostan, Russian Federation VOresh@mail.ru
Importance The article covers the problems of management of socio-economic systems at the municipal level. A complex of problems, available in this field, requires the introduction of modern methods of forecasting and planning for municipal development. A promising direction is the application of economic-mathematical models, to provide science-based assessment of the options for the medium term. Objectives The purpose of the study is the development of an economic-mathematical model of municipality. To achieve the goal, it is necessary to define the general principles of modeling based on the characteristics of the studied object, to develop a method of scenario parameters that affect the development of the municipal system, to specify factor dependency ratios and balance sheet models, as well as to set a range of indicative figures. The object of study is the municipal social and economic system; the subject of study is the social and economic processes and mechanisms of functioning and interaction of actors at the municipal level. Methods As the research tools, we used methods of economic-mathematical modeling, statistical, structural and dynamic analyses, and the correlation and regression analyses of the parameters of municipalities’ development. Results As a result, we have formed and tested a model of municipal formation, obtained quantitative indicators of development for the selected scenarios. The calculations based on the data of the Ufa City District, showed a relative preference for the investment-oriented model of development; the positive trends and the results of this strategy are most apparent in the medium to long term. Relevance The use of such tools in management practices will increase the efficiency of decision-making, ensure the validity of predictions and, in general, will have a positive impact on the formation of the municipal management in the Russian Federation.
Keywords: regional economic system, simulation, municipality, forecast, strategy development
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