Importance A decline in young and working age population and increase in elderly population affect the economic growth and put the economic revival of the nation at peril. Objectives I examine the number of principal socio-demographic groups of the Russian population within the 1990–2016 time span. I determine how the numbers may possibly change after 2017 and what measures can be undertaken to mitigate an adverse effect on the economy. Methods Relying upon the Rosstat data, I trace trends in numbers of principal socio?demographic groups of the Russian population up to 2017. To project it for the 2017–2050 period, I adhere to the Russian population dynamics forecast prepared in the Lomonosov Moscow State University. Results Young population and working age population will decline significantly, with the elderly population showing the opposite trend. The article demonstrates the breakdown of the population group as assessed by the probable forecast for January 1, 2051. Conclusions and Relevance The modernization process pursues a better demographic situation, infrastructure development and adoption of new measures to harmonize family and professional roles of parents, increase the share of working elderly people, promote the digital economy. All these aspects are important, with the first two of them being the most critical ones, since they are intended to increase the birth rate.
Senchagov V.K. Ekonomicheskaya bezopasnost': geopolitika, globalizatsiya, samosokhranenie i razvitie [Economic security: geopolicy, globalization, self-preservance and development]. Moscow, Finstatinform Publ., 2002, 128 p.
Nikitenko V.V. Dlina pokoleniya kak masshtab demograficheskogo vremeni i ego prakticheskoe primenenie. V kn.: Demograficheskie tetradi. Vyp. 9 [Generation Length as a Scale of the Demographic Time and its Practical application. In: Demographic Notebooks. Iss. 9]. Kiev, Institute of Economics, Academy of Sciences of Ukrainian SSR Publ., 1974, pp. 142–161.
Chekmareva E.A. [Problems of reproduction of labor resources at the regional level (after the example of the Vologda region)]. Problemy razvitiya territorii = Problems of Territory's Development, 2009, no. 2, pp. 56–67. (In Russ.)
Chistova E.V., Chichkanov V.P. [Forecasting the Effects of Raising the Retirement Age on Russia's Demographic Structure]. Ekonomicheskie i sotsial'nye peremeny: fakty, tendentsii, prognoz = Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast, 2016, no. 3, pp. 121–137. (In Russ.) URL: Link
Zaitseva Y.V. Scenario simulation of the demographic dynamics: the case of Volgograd oblast. Studies on Russian Economic Development, 2013, vol. 24, no. 3, pp. 546–554. URL: Link
Kvasha A.Ya. Problemy ekonomiko-demograficheskogo razvitiya SSSR [Problems of economic and demographic development of USSR]. Moscow, Statistika Publ, 1974, 200 p.
Ivanova E.I. [Male mortality in Russia. Causes and regional variations]. Sotsiologicheskie issledovaniya = Sociological Studies, 2010, no. 5, pp. 87–99. (In Russ.)
Bagirova I.Kh. [Integration processes in the CIS system of higher professional education]. Vestnik Rossiiskogo universiteta druzhby narodov. Ser. Ekonomika = Bulletin of Peoples' Friendship University of Russia. Ser. Economy, 2014, no. 4, pp. 135–144. (In Russ.)
Khusnutdinova G.F., Vorob'ev E.M. [Women with children in the labor market: motivation and priority employment]. Sovremennye problemy nauki i obrazovaniya = Modern Problems of Science and Education, 2015, no. 1-1, p. 1496. (In Russ.)
Kalabikhina I.E., Fedotova O.A. [Features of work-family reconciliation policy in European countries]. Nauchnye issledovaniya ekonomicheskogo fakul'teta. Elektronnyi zhurnal = Scientific Researches of Faculty of Economics. Electronic Journal, 2012, vol. 4, no. 2, pp. 107–129. (In Russ.)
Adserà A. Changing Fertility Rates in Developed Countries. The Impact of Labor Market Institutions. Journal of Population Economics, 2004, vol. 17, no. 1, pp. 17–43. URL: Link
Chetty R., Friedman J.N., Hilger N. et al. How Does Your Kindergarten Classroom Affect Your Earnings? Evidence from project STAR. NBER Working Paper 16381, September 2010. URL: Link
Heckman J. Skill formation and the economics of investing in disadvantaged children. Science, 2006, vol. 312, no. 5782, pp. 1990–1902. URL: Link
Bobkov V.N., Zabelina O.V., Loktyukhina N.V. [Raising the retirement age in Russia: economic necessity and demographic risks]. Narodonaselenie = Population, 2015, no 4, pp. 93–107. (In Russ.)
Gontmakher E.Sh. [Problem of population ageing in Russia]. Mirovaya ekonomika i mezhdunarodnye otnosheniya = World Economics and International Relations, 2012, no. 1, pp. 22–29. (In Russ.)
Rimashevskaya N.M., Dobrokhleb V.G. [Older generation as a resource for modernization of Russia]. Narodonaselenie = Population, 2013, no. 3, pp. 20–26. (In Russ.)
Nikonova E.I. [Place and role of aged people in modern Russian society]. Vestnik Nizhegorodskogo universiteta im. N.I. Lobachevskogo. Ser. Sotsial'nye nauki = Bulletin of Lobachevsky State University of Nizhni Novgorod. Ser. Social Sciences, 2007, no. 3, pp. 76–81. (In Russ.)
Ivanter V.V., Felps E., Kvint V.L. et al. [How will Russia's economy develop?]. Innovatsii = Innovations, 2013, no. 1, pp. 3–12. (In Russ.)
Semenov Yu.A. [IT-economy in 2016 and in 10 years]. Ekonomicheskie strategii = Economic Strategies, 2017, vol. 19, no. 1, pp. 126–135. (In Russ.)
