Home  Journals  National Interests: Priorities and Security  5(350) - 2017 May

The econometric model of economic growth of the nation in line with the resource-based and export-oriented economy and scientific and technological progress

Vol. 13, Iss. 5, MAY 2017

Article PDF Version

Received: 13 February 2017

Received in revised form: 14 March 2017

Accepted: 6 April 2017

Available online: 29 May 2017

Subject Heading: SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT OF ECONOMY

JEL Classification: С51, С52, С54, O11, O31

Pages: 843-856

https://doi.org/10.24891/ni.13.5.843

Importance The article discusses how the population's standard of living and welfare can be increased in the country, thus ensuring sustainable growth in Russia.
Objectives The research is aimed at finding necessary conditions for long-term economic growth in Russia up to 2022.
Methods Russia's economy model is based on statistical data of eight macroeconomic indicators, i.e. GDP, foreign trade balance, investment, employed population, production assets, percentage of payroll fund in GDP, price for oil exported from Russia and the number of population within 1990–2011 broken down by year.
Results Relying upon the model, I outlined development scenarios of the Russian economy up to 2022. I assessed endogenous variables and prepared illustrative graphs of GDP trends within the forecast period.
Conclusions and Relevance Long-standing economic growth of Russia requires higher wages. As the percentage of payroll in GDP and public consumption increase, productivity will demonstrate the same trend. When salaries go up in education and science, it boosts the number of scientific proceedings and inventions, thus inducing technological novelties and innovations, or ensuring S&T progress.

Keywords: economic growth, endogenous variable, exogenous variable, S&T, resource, development scenario

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