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National Interests: Priorities and Security
 

Sentiment-driven economy in the 21st century: From rise to fall

Vol. 12, Iss. 11, NOVEMBER 2016

PDF  Article PDF Version

Received: 6 July 2016

Received in revised form: 8 August 2016

Accepted: 30 August 2016

Available online: 29 November 2016

Subject Heading: ECONOMIC SECURITY

JEL Classification: Е29, Е30, F43, J23, O40

Pages: 62-72

Krasil'nikova E.E. Ulyanovsk State Technical University, Ulyanovsk, Russian Federation
studentulstu@mail.ru

Filippova I.A. Ulyanovsk State Technical University, Ulyanovsk, Russian Federation
fia282@mail.ru

Importance National economic development has been evaluated and forecast with such indicators as production rates in economic sectors, capital inflow and outflow, investment, etc. for a long time. As internationally proved, the economic growth is shaped inter alia with economic sentiment of people.
Objectives The research analyzes economic sentiment of the population and businessmen, its impact on economic growth rates and the use of data to forecast rates of long-term growth in Russia as the main source. The research pursues identifying the substance and nature of economic sentiment, analyzing how aspirations and concerns of businessmen and population influence economic conditions.
Methods The research constitutes a comparative analysis of trends in consumer and business confidence indexes, starting from 2005 and onwards.
Results We proved the need to consider economic sentiment of the population to formulate the national policy for economic development. As the article illustrates, economic growth is spurred, among other factors, with people’s intention to increase and maintain the existing quality of living. Economic behavior of the population, such as rush and panic, tend to be a starting point for global financial crises.
Conclusions and Relevance As our main conclusions, we suggest that the forecast of economic development rates should include the sentiment of the public and business. The negative response of the latter would be taken into account when outlining measures to stabilize economy and reach a balanced economic growth.

Keywords: economy, economic sentiment, innovation, investment, economic growth, economic crisis

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