Mechanisms and methods for statistical analysis and tracing of shifts in phases of cyclical development of the economy under increased uncertainty of the institutional and market environment
Prygunova M.I.Center of Advanced Economic Research in the Academy of Sciences of the Republic of Tatarstan, Kazan, Republic of Tatarstan, Russian Federation Mariya.Prigunova@tatar.ru
Importance Contemporary socio-economic systems develop in cycles. Those cyclical changes concern various aspects and levels of the economic system, its structure, thus outlining certain patterns. Considering economic globalization, regionalization, formation of complicated and mobile dynamic structures generating crisis phenomena, it is very reasonable to focus on the issue of contemporary regulation of cyclical development of economy, which becomes very difficult to resolve with classical methods of the cyclical theory. Objectives The research scientifically confirms, verifies and tests the model of cyclical fluctuations that is based on such factors that would be very vulnerable to changes in the external and internal environment of the economic system. Methods The research involves a technique that relies upon a factor-based approach and methods of statistical analysis and forecast and taxonomic method in particular. Results We devised an algorithm to assess and evaluate cyclical fluctuations, which would allow identifying the upward and downward phases of economic cycles no matter whether they enter the positive or negative zone of priority development indices. This algorithm helps to make short-term forecasts, one to two years ahead of the current path of economic development of the national economy. Conclusions and Relevance As the analysis shows, short-term cycles of the Russian economy somewhat different from conventional short-term Kitchin cycles, which reoccur every two to four years. The time of economic cycles in the Russian Federation has a very broad range, depending on adjusting activities of governmental authorities, and increased volatility of market conditions.
Keywords: business cycle, uncertainty
References:
Abalkin L., Kondrat'ev N., Yakovets Yu., Makasheva N. Bol'shie tsikly kon"yunktury i teoriya predvideniya [Big cycles of market conditions and the theory of anticipation]. Moscow, Ekonomika Publ., 2002, 780 p.
Hicks J. Stoimost' i kapital [Value and Capital]. Moscow, Progress Publ., 1988, 488 p.
Glaz'ev S. Strategiya operezhayushchego razvitiya Rossii v usloviyakh global'nogo krizisa [The priority development strategy of Russia during the global crisis]. Moscow, Ekonomika Publ., 2010, 256 p.
Perez C. Structural Change and Assimilation of New Technologies in the Economic and Social System. Futures, 1983, vol. 15, iss. 5, pp. 357–375.
Keynes J.M. Obshchaya teoriya zanyatosti, protsenta i deneg [The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money]. Moscow, Eksmo Publ., 2007, 960 p.
Instituty razvitiya regional'nykh ekonomicheskikh sistem: monografiya [Institutions for development of regional economic systems: a monograph]. Samara, ASGARD Publ., 2015.
Schumpeter J.A. Teoriya ekonomicheskogo razvitiya [Theorie der wirtschaftlichen Entwicklung]. Moscow, Progress Publ., 1982, 436 p.
Notkin A.I. Problemy sotsialisticheskogo vosproizvodstva [Socialist reproduction issues]. Moscow, Nauka Publ., 1984, 456 p.
Abramov I.M. Tsikly v razvitii ekonomiki SSSR [Cycles in development of the USSR economy]. Minsk, Nauka i tekhnika Publ., 1990, 158 p.
Shekhin V. [Consequences of inflationary economic policies]. Voprosy Ekonomiki, 1991, no. 1, pp. 17–26. (In Russ.)
Yakovets Yu.V. Tsikly. Krizisy. Prognozy [Cycles. Crises. Forecasts]. Moscow, Nauka Publ., 1999, 448 p.
D'yakonov I.M. Puti istorii. Ot drevnego cheloveka do nashikh dnei [Routes of history. From the ancient people up till the present day]. Moscow, Vostochnaya literatura Publ., 1994, 189 p.
Marchetti C. Society as a Learning System: Discovery, Invention and Innovation Cycles Revisited. TechnologicalForecastingandSocialChange, 1980, vol. 18, iss. 4, pp. 267–282.
Nanotekhnologii kak klyuchevoi faktor novogo tekhnologicheskogo uklada v ekonomike: monografiya [Nanotechnologies as a key factor of a new technological mode in economy: a monograph]. Moscow, Trovant Publ., 2009, 304 p.
Innovatsionno-modernizatsionnye volny v sotsial'no-ekonomicheskom razvitii: tekhnologicheskie uklady, makroekonomicheskie generatsii, vzglyad v budushchee. Kn. 1. Tekstil'naya, metallurgicheskaya, neftepererabatyvayushchaya, neftekhimicheskaya promyshlennost', elektroenergetika, voennoe mashinostroenie [Innovative and modernization waves in socio-economic development: technological modes, macroeconomic generations, a look into the future. Book 1. Textile, metallurgical, oil refining, petrochemical, electrical industries and military machine-building]. Samara, ASGARD Publ., 2013, 458 p.
Barr N. Rynok truda i sotsial'naya politika v stranakh Tsentral'noi i Vostochnoi Evropy: perekhodnyi period i dal'neishee razvitie [Labor Markets and Social Policy in Central and Eastern Europe: The Transition and Beyond]. Moscow, ICC DIS Publ., 1997, 495 p.
Babetskaya-Kukharchuk O.A., Morel' M. [The role of market institutions during Russia's integration into global economy]. Ekonomicheskii zhurnal Vysshei shkoly ekonomiki = HSE Economic Journal, 2004, vol. 8, no. 2, pp. 197–224. (In Russ.)
Kovaleva G. Izmerenie i modelirovanie tsiklicheskoi dinamiki ekonomicheskikh protsessov na osnove spektral'nogo analiza [Measurement and modeling of cyclical trends in economic processes through a spectral analysis]. Novosibirsk, Institute for Economics and Industrial Production Organization of the Siberian Branch of the USSR Academy of Sciences Publ., 1991, 150 p.
