Importance The article discusses modern condition of the world economy process globalization. Its development is characterized by increasing the trends of neo-protectionism and transregionalism that increases the degree of uncertainty of doing business. Under these conditions, multinationals modify their approaches to investment policy and transform their global production and trade networks. Therefore, it is important to monitor potential risks and outcomes in global value chains (GVC). Objectives The study focuses on changing conditions of business of multinationals and emerging risks. It analyzes the views of experts on challenges and threats to global value chains, and offers a possible indicator that describes the final financial result of business in GVC. Methods The study rests on comparative analysis, expert evaluations and mathematical formalization. Results The review of existing opinions on risk indicators and business results in GVC showed the plurality and poor suitability of proposed parameters. We underpin the need for using an indicator reflecting the final outcome of the company in the global chain, and propose an indicator, which characterizes the financial outcome of business in GVC. Conclusions and Relevance Transnational corporations doing business in global value chains should promptly monitor and consider all changes and new risks. The net present value added may be an important evaluation parameter. It should be constantly adjusted by modifying the discount rate to account for the impact of general and specific risks.
Keywords: globalization, global chain, risk, result
References:
Global'naya sistema na perelome: puti k novoi normal'nosti [Crisis of the global system: Pathways toward a new normal]. Moscow, IMEMO RAS Publ., 2016, 32 p.
Kheifets B.A. Transregional'noe pereformatirovanie global'nogo ekonomicheskogo prostranstva. Vyzovy dlya Rossii [Trans-regional reformatting of the global economic space. Challenges for Russia]. Moscow, Institute of Economics of RAS Publ., 2016, 86 p.
Khesin E.S. [Modern global economy: Finance and capital formation]. Den'gi i kredit = Money and Credit, 2016, no. 8, pp. 31–36. (In Russ.)
Stephenson S. Trade Governance Frameworks in a World of Global Value Chains. Policy Options Paper,2016,Geneva, International Centre for Trade and Sustainable Development, World Economic Forum. Available at: Link.
Taglioni D., Winkler D. Making Global Value Chains Work for Development. Trade and Development Series. Washington, D.C., World Bank Group, 2016. Available at: Link. doi: 10.1596/978-1-4648-0157-0
Konina N.Yu. [Major aspects of international companies' development in a changing world]. Vestnik MGIMO Universiteta = Vestnik MGIMO-University, 2016, no. 1, pp. 143–153. (In Russ.)
Shuiskii V.P. [International trade in goods: Maintaining current trends or a turning-point]. Rossiiskii vneshneekonomicheskii vestnik = Russian Foreign Economic Journal, 2016, no. 7, pp. 53–59. (In Russ.)
Kuznetsov A.V. [Global imbalances and geo-financial risks of Russia]. Ekonomika. Nalogi. Pravo = Economics. Taxes. Law, 2016, no. 3, pp. 51–57. (In Russ.)
Sauvé P., Soprana M. Disciplining Investment Incentives: A Lost Cause? Available at: Link.
Spartak A.N. [Promising areas of Russia's export specialization]. Rossiiskii vneshneekonomicheskii vestnik = Russian Foreign Economic Journal, 2016, no. 4, pp. 3–10. (In Russ.)
Balakireva S.M. [Principles and channels to find new trade partners under economic crisis]. Rossiiskii vneshneekonomicheskii vestnik = Russian Foreign Economic Bulletin, 2016, no. 4, pp. 63–72. (In Russ.)
Makarov I.A., Sokolova A.K. [The Eurasian integration and the Silk Road Economic Belt: Opportunities for Russia]. Vestnik mezhdunarodnykh organizatsii: obrazovanie, nauka, novaya ekonomika = International Organizations Research Journal: Education, Science, New Economy, 2016, no. 2, pp. 40–57. (In Russ.)
Sokolov V.V. [Global value chains: Considering the contribution of countries in value added creation]. Rossiiskii vneshneekonomicheskii vestnik = Russian Foreign Economic Journal, 2016, no. 2, pp. 48–59. (In Russ.)
Idrisova V.V., Litvinova Yu.O. [Trade in value added: An empirical analysis]. Rossiiskii vneshneekonomicheskii vestnik = Russian Foreign Economic Journal, 2016, no. 8, pp. 49–66. (In Russ.)
Kukushkina Yu.M. [Global value chains and corporate interests of multinational corporations]. Sovremennaya konkurentsiya = Modern Competition, 2016, no. 2, pp. 107–117. (In Russ.)
Biryukova O.V. [Participation of the services sector in global value chains development]. Izvestiya Ural'skogo gosudarstvennogo ekonomicheskogo universiteta = Journal of Ural State University of Economics, 2016, no. 3, pp. 115–125. (In Russ.)
Gurova I.P. [On multidimensional model of Eurasian economic integration]. Prostranstvennaya ekonomika = Spatial Economics, 2016, no. 1, pp. 14–29. (In Russ.)
Gereffi G., Luo X. Risks and Opportunities of Participation in Global Value Chains. The World Bank, Policy Research Working Paper, 2014, no. 6847. Available at: Link.
Meshkova T.A., Moiseichev E.Ya. [Foresight applications to the analysis of global value chains]. Forsait = Foresight and STI Governance, 2016, no. 1, pp. 69–82. (In Russ.)
Dement'ev V.E., Ustyuzhanina E.V. [The inclusion of domestic economy into global value chains: Creative potential and risks]. Rossiiskii ekonomicheskii zhurnal = Russian Economics Journal, 2016, no. 2, pp. 19–34. (In Russ.)
Adler M., Dumas B. International Portfolio Choice and Corporation Finance: A Synthesis. The Journal of Finance, 1983, vol. 38, no. 3, pp. 925–984. Available at: Link
