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Financial Analytics: Science and Experience
 

The use of financial leverage to estimate synthetic credit rating of the entity

Vol. 9, Iss. 13, APRIL 2016

PDF  Article PDF Version

Received: 4 February 2016

Received in revised form: 15 February 2016

Accepted: 25 February 2016

Available online: 15 April 2016

Subject Heading: RISK, ANALYSIS AND EVALUATION

JEL Classification: G24, G32

Pages: 16-25

Laskina L.Yu. Saint Petersburg National Research University of Information Technologies, Mechanics and Optics, St. Petersburg, Russian Federation
risk05@mail.ru

Kal'varskii G.V. Saint Petersburg State University, St. Petersburg, Russian Federation
kagevlad@mail.ru

Importance The article investigates financial leverage and its measurement methods. When this indicator goes up, financial risks increase. Higher financial difficulties affect the entity's credit rating directly.
Objectives The research analyzes how financial leverage influences synthetic credit rating of the entity.
Methods When devising our own method, we applied the synthetic credit risk scheme, which was based on a correlation between credit ratings and key financial ratios (interest coverage ratio, net debt ratio), and the relation between the corporate rating and yield and redemption of corporate bonds.
Results After we identified the inverse relation between financial leverage and interest coverage ratio, we evaluated the effect of financial leverage on the corporate credit rating, which was estimated through synthetic credit rating assessment. Studying the entities operating in the automotive and oil sectors, we analyzed credit ratings assigned by the leading rating agencies and estimated with the updated synthetic credit rating. Entities in the automotive sector were found to have higher ratings than updated synthetic ones. However, oil companies demonstrate an opposite trend.
Conclusions Updated synthetic credit rating, including financial leverage, is more flexible reflection of changes in financial position relating to internal and external risks of the entity.

Keywords: synthetic credit rating, interest coverage ratio, financial risk, automotive industry

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