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Financial Analytics: Science and Experience
 

Studying trends in the development of regional socio-economic systems

Vol. 8, Iss. 15, APRIL 2015

PDF  Article PDF Version

Available online: 22 April 2015

Subject Heading: MONITORING OF ECONOMIC PROCESSES

JEL Classification: 

Pages: 32-41

Repova M.L. Northern (Arctic) Federal University, Arkhangelsk, Russian Federation
m.repova@narfu.ru

Lobanova Yu.S. Northern (Arctic) Federal University, Arkhangelsk, Russian Federation
u.lobanova@narfu.ru

Importance Whereas regions are very different in terms of their development, there is a need to identify competitive advantages of the regions and form an up-to-date performance indicators system. To have a comprehensive view of the socio-economic development of regions, it is reasonable to explore different aspects of their socio-economic position.
     Objectives The research aims at analyzing the dynamics and stable relations of socio-economic indicators that allow identifying and preventing negative processes in the economy timely in order to set up a system of indicators reflecting the level of areas' (regions) socio-economic development and form projected models.
     Methods
Using analytical and typological grouping, various methods of rating, correlation and regression analyses, we examine the system of indicators that describe the potential and level of the regions' socio-economic development. Regression models allowed formalizing the stable and economic relations of operational monitoring indicators. Based on studies of monitoring indicators dynamics for five years, we find components of time series that are not of random nature, and build a model that would be appropriate to provide a short-term forecast of the area development. Statistical tests help evaluate the acceptability of the models generated.
     Results As a result of the research, we build a system of socio-economic indicators that allows for operational monitoring and forecasting the regions' development in a short run with sufficient precision. As an applied solution to the implementation of work, we devise and register a program for short-term forecasting of the socio-economic indicators of the regions' development using linear trend models.
     Conclusions and Relevance As a result of studying the development trends of the socio-economic systems, we conclude that the study enables us to evaluate the situation in the region and define specific activities to create favorable business environment in the regions.

Keywords: development, potential, rating, trend, regression

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