Importance In order to make financial stability evaluation of enterprises, various approaches are used: the coefficient analysis, which uses the system of indicators; discriminant models, which distinguish bankrupt companies from financially stable borrowing entities and predict probable bankruptcy of a borrowing company; numerous unique evaluation techniques of probability of bankruptcy, which operate with a wide range of indicators. In this paper, to forecast a financial condition of companies, we offer using the vector Z-account auto regression model of Leith, which allows considering mutual influence of companies on their financial activity. Objectives The paper aims to define input information of mathematical model and to construct auto regression models for financial performance on the basis of which we calculate the Z-account of the Leith financial stability model for three cellular communication companies: OAO Mobile TeleSystems (MTS), OAO MegaFon (Megaphone) and OAO VimpelCom (Beeline). Another objective is to develop the auto regression model of Z-account of the Leith model and to make a forecast of financial stability of the cellular communication companies for the 4th quarter of 2014. Methods On the basis of balance sheet data, we calculate financial figures, which are included into the Leith model. For all indicators, we develop regression AR(1) models. On the basis of these models we develop the auto regression VAR(1) model of Leith Z-account to assess the financial stability of the enterprises. Results Within the framework of the research, we have solved the following tasks: using the balance sheets from 2003 to 2013 of the cell communication operators, which are presented in the Internet, we have developed the auto-regression VAR(1) model of the first order of Leith Z-account for financial stability evaluation. The analysis of the model showed that the model is stable. With the help of this model, we made the forecast of a resultant indicator of the Leith model for all companies to evaluate their financial state as of the end of 2014. Conclusions and Relevance According to the forecast for the 4th quarter of 2014, which was made under the obtained VAR(1) model, all companies have favorable prospects for financial stability, and are not exposed to bankruptcy risk.
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