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Financial Analytics: Science and Experience
 

Applying the generalized fuzzy numbers theory to project ranking by risk level

Vol. 7, Iss. 45, DECEMBER 2014

Available online: 6 December 2014

Subject Heading: MATHEMATICAL METHODS OF ANALYSIS

JEL Classification: 

Pages: 58-66

Gavrilenko M.A. Lomonosov Moscow State University, Moscow, Russian Federation
maksgavrilenko@gmail.com

Importance One of the most crucial priorities of business development under the current changing economic environment is developing and implementing an efficient risk analysis system. Implementing new approaches to risk management can lead to substantial reduction in probability of losses from investment activity.
     Objectives The article deals with developing an algorithm of comparing investment projects by risk level. The tasks were as follows: application of the qualitative risk analysis at the risk identification stage; application of the generalized fuzzy sets theory to the risk assessment procedure; development (application) of an adequate mathematic methodology; possibility to implement the algorithm to a vast class of investment projects.
     Methods I have developed an algorithm of comparing investment projects by risk level. This algorithm bases on the generalized fuzzy numbers theory, which reveals substantial advantages to an analyst through assessing risks of investment projects in conditions of limited information.
     Results The proposed algorithm is universal because it can be implemented in many investment projects. The developed methodology is simple for understanding and convenient for practical implementation.
     Conclusions and Relevance It is possible to apply the proposed algorithm to risk assessment together with generally accepted methods. This algorithm implies major job at the stage of risk factors identification. This is a great advantage as accurate and precise identification of risk factors leads to more precise risk assessment. The generalized fuzzy numbers theory enables to introduce expert judgment. This implies a certain level of flexibility of the proposed algorithm. The proposed methodology contributes to developing the theory of fuzzy sets and demonstrates the benefits of its use in relation to risk management issues.

Keywords: investment project, risk, uncertainty, fuzzy, set, number, membership function, generalized

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