Importance Investment projects for developing the productive potential of aviation enterprises have a protracted period of equity divestment. Throughout the period, the projected conditions may change. To adapt to such unpredictable developments, enterprises have to incur significant financial costs, thus causing unrecoverable losses. Therefore, many projects at the investment stage are exposed to material risk. Objectives We devise a new approach to evaluating whether the productive potential of the Russian aviation industry is effectively developed. Throughout the implementation period, there come out different estimates of the demand, cost, and new technologies. Managing the implementation of protracted investment projects requires a toolkit for applying the real options approach. Methods The research relies upon methods of logic and statistical analysis, and mathematical modeling in economics. Results We propose a new classification of possible changes in the investment project environment. We analyzed losses by project implementation scenario at different stages. The research also considers the specifics of the aviation industry and analyzes how the technological level of production influences respective risks. Conclusions and Relevance We assessed the effectiveness of the productive potential development in the Russian aviation industry. It would be reasonable to consider our estimates to analyze the effectiveness of adaptive management of protracted investment projects for the productive potential development. The estimates may help identify the most material risks at different stages of such projects. We also provide our recommendations for optimizing the management of such risks.
Baev I.A., Alyabushev D.B. [Real options approach: From securities to innovation]. Vestnik UGTU-UPI. Seriya Ekonomika i upravlenie = Bulletin of Ural Federal University. Series Economic and Management, 2010, no. 3, pp. 52–62. (In Russ.)
Bukhvalov A.V. [Real options in management: An introduction]. Rossiiskii zhurnal menedzhmenta = Russian Management Journal, 2004, no. 1, pp. 3–32. (In Russ.)
Mishchenko A.V., Koshelev P.S. [Methods and models of operations management innovation project, taking into account the uncertainty and risk]. Audit i finansovyi analiz = Audit and Financial Analysis, 2014, no. 6, pp. 117–128. (In Russ.)
Baranov A.O., Myzyko E.I. [Real options in venture investment: Valuation from a venture fund position]. Vestnik NGU. Seriya Sotsial'no-ekonomicheskie nauki = Vestnik of Novosibirsk State University. Series: Social and Economic Sciences, vol. 11, iss. 2, pp. 62–70. (In Russ.)
Allen M., Carpenter C., Hutchins M., Jones G. Impact of Risk Management on Project Cost: An Industry Comparison. Journal of Information Technology & Economic Development, 2015, vol. 6, iss. 2, pp. 1–19.
Bertoni F., Croce A., Guerini M. The Effectiveness of Public Venture Capital in Supporting the Investments of European Young High-Tech Companies. July 11, 2012. URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2103702
McNeil A., Frey R., Embrechts P. Quantitative Risk Management. Princeton, N.J., Princeton University Press, 2015, 699 р.
Haimes Y. Risk Modeling, Assessment, and Management. Hoboken, N.J., John Wiley & Sons, 2005, 861 р.
Rusanova A.L., Klochkov V.V. [Efficiency analysis of Russian practice of financing high-tech industry's innovative projects (on the example of aircraft industry)]. Audit i finansovyi analiz = Audit and Financial Analysis, 2011, no. 5, pp. 57–61. (In Russ.)