Economic Analysis: Theory and Practice
 

Analyzing and modeling the demand and supply indicators for engineers and technical specialists

Vol. 17, Iss. 5, MAY 2018

Received: 1 March 2018

Received in revised form: 12 March 2018

Accepted: 21 March 2018

Available online: 29 May 2018

Subject Heading: ANALYSIS OF HUMAN CAPITAL

JEL Classification: C30, C50, J24, J44, O40

Pages: 886-905

https://doi.org/10.24891/ea.17.5.886

Varshavskii A.E. Central Economics and Mathematics Institute, RAS, Moscow, Russian Federation
varshav@cemi.rssi.ru

https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8229-3692

Kochetkova E.V. Central Economics and Mathematics Institute, RAS, Moscow, Russian Federation
k.v.kochetkova@gmail.com

https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9058-2128

Importance The article addresses the analysis and modeling of the labor market of engineering and technical specialists and possibilities to estimate a potential imbalance of demand and supply in this category of personnel.
Objectives The purpose is to reveal factors affecting the demand for and supply of engineers and technical staff with the help of modeling, to develop and test closed models of the labor market of this category of specialists based on data for the USA and Russia.
Methods We employ an economic and statistical analysis, modeling, and cross-country comparisons.
Results We offer two types of closed models to analyze changes in the labor market of engineering and technical staff. Testing the models based on data for the USA enabled to develop their modifications for the Russian labor market of the said specialists. Using a more complicated model that considers the results obtained in our previous works, we performed the analysis of possible imbalance of demand and supply of engineering and technical specialists up to 2020.
Conclusions The results of modeling enable to estimate a possible imbalance of demand and supply of engineers and technical specialists till 2020. They show the need for improving the labor conditions, quality of engineering and technical education, systems of monitoring the demand for this category of specialists, and planning their training. In future, when modeling the labor market of engineering and technical specialists, it is crucial to pay attention to behavioral models of occupational choice, processes of deindustrialization and reindustrialization, outsourcing and offshoring.

Keywords: engineer, technical specialist, model, labor market

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