Economic Analysis: Theory and Practice
 

Using the neural network method to forecast investment efficiency

Vol. 16, Iss. 8, AUGUST 2017

Received: 5 July 2017

Received in revised form: 13 July 2017

Accepted: 24 July 2017

Available online: 29 August 2017

Subject Heading: INVESTMENT ANALYSIS

JEL Classification: О11

Pages: 1438–1454

https://doi.org/10.24891/ea.16.8.1438

Khrustalev E.Yu. Central Economics and Mathematics Institute, RAS, Moscow, Russian Federation stalev@cemi.rssi.ru

Shramko O.G. District Inspectorate of Federal Tax Service No. 7, Kolomna, Moscow Oblast, Russian Federation dj-59@mail.ru

Subject The article is dedicated to identifying the areas of investment in the economy of subjects of the Russian Federation.
Objectives The purpose of the study is to develop new comprehensive and accurate tools to assess the potential of regional economic structure to determine the areas of investment.
Methods The proposed methodology and tools for its implementation rest on integrated use of the neural network method as applied to the region's economy.
Results For the purpose of integrated evaluation of investment efficiency, we developed a method that helps obtain quite accurate figures of investment policy efficiency in respect of each subject of the Russian Federation, using a limited number of initial indicators of economic activity in the region. This approach enables to determine the most appropriate areas of investing for socio-economic development of regions, to smooth the spatial polarization that currently tends to increase.
Conclusions and Relevance Our methodological approach makes it possible to assess the expediency of clustering the constituent entities of the Russian Federation and using the neural network modeling to perfect the State investment policy.

Keywords: economic factor, development, investment

References:

  1. Gorskii I.V. [Taxable capacity in the mechanism of inter-budget relations]. Finansy = Finance, 1999, no. 6, pp. 27–30. (In Russ.)
  2. Balatskii E.V. [The efficiency of the fiscal policy of the State]. Problemy prognozirovaniya = Problems of Forecasting, 2000, no. 5, pp. 32–45. (In Russ.)
  3. Kadochnikov P., Lugovoi O., Sinel'nikov S., Shkrebela E. Modelirovanie dinamiki nalogovykh postuplenii, otsenka nalogovogo potentsiala territorii [Modeling the dynamics of tax revenue, assessment of taxable capacity of territories]. Moscow, Gaidar Institute Publ., 1999, 237 p.
  4. Gusev A.B. Nalogi i ekonomicheskii rost: teorii i empiricheskie otsenki [Taxes and economic growth: Theory and empirical estimates]. Moscow, Ekonomika i pravo Publ., 2003, 317 p.
  5. Blank I.A. Osnovy investitsionnogo menedzhmenta [Fundamentals of investment management]. Kiev, El'ga-N, Nika-Tsentr Publ., 2004.
  6. Vilenskii P.L., Livshits V.N., Smolyak S.A. Otsenka effektivnosti investitsionnykh proektov: teoriya i praktika [Evaluating the efficiency of investment projects: Theory and practice]. Moscow, Poli Print Servis Publ., 2015, 1300 p.
  7. Zelenskaya S.G. [Investment potential of regional development: Tax burden]. Innovatsionnyi Vestnik Region, 2007, no. 2, pp. 43–46. (In Russ.)
  8. Bodie Z., Kane A., Marcus A.J. Printsipy investitsii [Essentials of Investments]. Moscow, Vil'yams Publ., 2002, 348 p.
  9. Hoppe H.-H. The Economics and Sociology of Taxation. Journal des Economistes et des Etudes Humaines, 1990, vol. 1, pp. 61–90.
  10. Glazyrin M.V. Sotsial'no-proizvodstvennyi kompleks – sistemnaya osnova modernizatsii i camorazvitiya [Socio-industrial complex as a system-based modernization and self-development]. Moscow, Nauka Publ., 2012, 311 p.
  11. Bragg S.M. Financial Analysis: Second Edition: A Business Decision. Colorado, Accounting Tools, 2014, 2nd edition, 342 p.
  12. Polozkov M.G. [The problem of leveling the social and economic asymmetry of territories]. Nauchnye zapiski Sibirskoi akademii gosudarstvennoi sluzhby. Ser.: Regional'naya ekonomika = Proceedings of Siberian Academy of Public Service. Series: Regional Economy, 2003, no. 2, pp. 81–84. (In Russ.)
  13. Khrustalev E.Yu. [Economic and financial aspects of forming the dual-use regional infrastructure]. Vooruzhenie i Ekonomika, 2008, no. 1, pp. 75–86. (In Russ.) URL: http://www.viek.ru/vie_08_1.pdf
  14. Ukolov V.F. Formirovanie strategii sotsial'no-ekonomicheskogo razvitiya territorii regional'nogo znacheniya [Forming a strategy of social-economic development of territories of regional significance]. Moscow, State University of Management Publ., 2014, 135 p.
  15. Novikov D.A. Teoriya upravleniya organizatsionnymi sistemami [Theory of organizational systems control]. Moscow, Fizmatlit Publ., 2007, 584 p.
  16. Ivanova E.I., Khrustalev E.Yu. [A methodology for information resources organization and use to control the regional economy]. Informatsionnye resursy Rossii = Information Resources of Russia, 2008, no. 3, pp. 2–7. (In Russ.)
  17. Solov'eva Yu.S., Grekova T.I. [Construction of the models of behavior of the economic processes by neuronet technologies]. Vestnik Tomskogo gosudarstvennogo universiteta. Upravlenie, vychislitel'naya tekhnika i informatika = Tomsk State University Journal. Control, Computer Engineering and Computer Science, 2009, no. 3, pp. 49–57. (In Russ.)
  18. Kaziev V.M. Vedenie v sistemnyi analiz i modelirovanie [Introduction to the systems analysis and modeling]. Moscow, Internet-Universitet informatsionnykh tekhnologii Publ., 2013, 475 p.
  19. Renshaw G. Maths for Economics. New York, Oxford University Press, 2005, pp. 516–526.
  20. Baestaens D.E., Van den Bergh W.M., Wood D. Neironnye seti i finansovye rynki: prinyatie reshenii v torgovykh operatsiyakh [Neural Network. Solutions for Trading In Financial Markets]. Moscow, TVP Publ., 1997, 236 p.
  21. Halberstam N.M., Baskin I.I., Palyulin V.A., Zefirov N.S. [Neural networks as a method for elucidating structure-property relationships for organic compounds]. Uspekhi khimii = Russian Chemical Reviews, 2003, vol. 72, no. 7, pp. 706–727. (In Russ.)

View all articles of issue

 

ISSN 2311-8725 (Online)
ISSN 2073-039X (Print)

Journal current issue

Vol. 16, Iss. 8
August 2017

Archive