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Economic Analysis: Theory and Practice
 

Forecasting the environmental effects of diffusion of electric vehicle technologies based on the learning curve methodology

Vol. 16, Iss. 4, APRIL 2017

PDF  Article PDF Version

Received: 21 February 2017

Received in revised form: 6 March 2017

Accepted: 17 March 2017

Available online: 2 May 2017

Subject Heading: MATHEMATICAL METHODS AND MODELS

JEL Classification: 

Pages: 782-796

https://doi.org/10.24891/ea.16.4.782

Ratner S.V. V.A. Trapeznikov Institute of Control Sciences, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russian Federation
lanaratner@ipu.ru

Iosifov V.V. Kuban State Technological University, Krasnodar, Russian Federation
iosifov_v@mail.ru

Importance Electric vehicles as an alternative to traditional transport facilities with internal combustion engines are deemed to optimize the structure and technological support to transportation systems. However, there is no clear understanding in the scientific community yet as to whether they are better from the environmental effect perspective.
Objectives The aim of this work is to develop a method of forecasting the environmental effects of diffusion of electric car technologies and test it on the Krasnodar Krai case, taking into account the technical progress in energy efficiency of replaced (traditional transport facilities) and replacing (electric cars) technology.
Methods We employ the learning theory as a methodological framework, which is widely used to solve the problems of forecasting the technological development.
Results The calculations show that by 2025 the total volume of private vehicle emission will go down by 9.5% as compared to 2015, if the energy efficiency of vehicles with internal combustion engine and the penetration of electric cars increase. This is true even despite a significant increase in the level of motorization (almost by 65%). Thus, an increasing reach of electric vehicle technologies is preferable from an environmental standpoint.
Conclusions and Relevance The proposed approach enables to estimate the reduction in emissions from road transport in any region subject to continuing trends in the growth of energy efficiency and environmental friendliness of traditional cars, increase in the vehicle-to-population ratio in Russia, and reduction in electric car cost. The model ignores additional effects of encouraging and discouraging policies.

Keywords: land transportation, innovative transportation technology, electric car, renewable energy, energy efficiency

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