Chereshnev V.A.Institute of Immunology and Physiology, Ural Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences, Yekaterinburg, Russian Federation chereshnev@duma.gov.ru
Vasil'eva A.V.Institute of Economics, Ural Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences, Yekaterinburg, Russian Federation sa840sha@mail.ru
Korobitsyn B.A.Institute of Economics, Ural Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences, Yekaterinburg, Russian Federation kba@ecko.uran.ru
Importance The main criterion for selection and approval of government programs aimed at solving social and economic problems should be an evidence-based technique to assess the economic efficiency. However, at present there are no regulations on a standard assessment, or, at least, its general (basic) principles. Objectives The paper aims to solve urgent problems related to development and realization of methods for economic efficiency assessment of socially oriented government programs, having both scientific novelty and practical implication. Methods For the study, we employ a Monte Carlo Simulation method to assess the impact of economic, financial and currency risks on program implementation under uncertainty, a discounting technique to discount the future value of costs and benefits associated with a project to present value. To represent expected effects of program implementation in value terms, we use the human development index. Results The offered methodology was realized in MathCAD. We tested the methodology to assess the efficiency of Health Care Development, a government program of the Russian Federation. The obtained results enabled to conclude on the program's high expected return and average risk level. Conclusions and Relevance Based on successful test results, we offer our methodology as a model to assess economic efficiency of other socially oriented programs, to compare and select the most effective ones under budget restrictions.
Keywords: government program, social sphere, economic efficiency, Human Development Index, Monte Carlo Simulation
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